ERDC/EL TN-11-1, Flood Risk Management: Insights from an Expert Modeling Process

PURPOSE: Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to natural disaster preparedness planning that harmonizes efforts of implementing agencies and stakeholders. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address risk perceptions and behavior of decision makers and stakeholders are essential for effective risk management policy. Formal (versus ad hoc) analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognition represent an important first step. The mental models approach (e.g. Morgan et al. 2002) is one methodology for revealing, characterizing, and mapping stakeholder beliefs about risk that has demonstrated success in developing more effective cross-stakeholder communication strategies and informing policy decisions. This technical note summarizes the diagrambased, expert mental models representation of influences on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) flood risk management activities. Understanding these expert mental models of processes central to USACE functions, including those of flood risk, preparedness and response will enable the Corps to bridge differences across and within stakeholder groups, cultures, and disciplines, internally and externally. The mental modeling approach can be used by USACE to synthesize values and objectives of Corps organizational units to provide a unified framework for managing natural disasters, as well as other emerging challenges related to USACE’s mission and vision.